IPD Blog: IPD Cost Code Launch & IPD/IPF Property Investment Conference 2009

Australia’s investment recovery from the global financial crisis will be supported by its compulsory superannuation system, IPD Australia’s new managing director told delegates.

Speaking last Thursday at a lunchtime session at the IPD/IPF Property Investment Conference, Anthony de Francesco said the Australian economy has weathered the storm better than almost every other developed economy further aiding the commercial property market’s recovery prospects.

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There is now a significant possibility that within two years operating leases will have to be disclosed on company balance sheets, Deloitte’s Russell McMillan told IPD Occupiers conference delegates.

McMillan, a corporate finance assistant director within Deloitte’s the real estate practice, said the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB) and the US Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) proposals on operating leases could come into force in 2012. McMillan told delegates: “The proposals that are out now have got a considerable head of steam behind them.”

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Occupiers can leverage the UK recession as an opportunity to emerge in a stronger position with leaner property estate costs, delegates were told.

Speaking at the launch of the fifth edition of the IPD Cost Code, director Glenn Corney said the weakening in the broader property market had led to “deals for quick-witted occupiers”.

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Global real estate and capital markets were ripe for a shock to challenge the returning lackadaisical attitude towards risk, delegates in Friday morning’s Grand Debate heard.

Referring to the potential impact of Dubai World’s request for a six-month delay on repaying its commercial property debts, Morgan Stanley senior adviser John Carrafiell told delegates: “It is less about what properties might or might not be considered for sale… this is just one incident, there may be others.”

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Managers with large amounts of capital to invest in real estate markets will have to move up the risk curve and buy assets with shorter leases, Prestbury Investments’ Mike Brown told delegates.

Speaking in the Grand Debate, chief executive Brown told said: “In today’s market, it is much harder if you are managing very large amounts of money or a very specific investment strategy, than for smaller, more nimble opportunity funds for which a few small ticket deals can be transformational in terms of rates of return.

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The majority of real estate debt buyers have ceased to exist forcing banks to rethink their products to attract a new generation of investors, delegates were told.

Speaking at the conference’s regulation session, Paul Hastings’ senior partner Conor Downey said part of the reason behind the credit crunch was the near endless repackaging of debt into more and more complex forms.

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The UK commercial property market has returned to an attractive time for investors but stakeholders must remain vigilant of the uncertainties, delegates were told last Wednesday.

Speaking on the outlook for domestic property markets over the next three to five years, RREEF head of global research Peter Hobbs told delegates a consensus view has emerged although significant economic and capital market uncertainties require varied scenarios to be analysed.

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The controversial Alternative Investment Fund Managers Directive (AIFMD) will not be implemented until 2012, IMA senior director Julie Patterson estimates.

Speaking in one of the morning sessions on Thursday, Patterson said the directive in its original form was “riddled with anti-Madoff, anti-private equity and anti-short selling rhetoric, drafted under acute political pressure with both protectionism and ignorance writ large.”

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More than two thirds of UK property disposals last year we sold at below price valuation, according to IPD’s IPD/RICS Valuation and Sale Price Study 2009.

Rebecca Graham, senior analyst at IPD told delegates at the pre-conference briefing on property valuation accuracy that by contrast the three other major European markets in the study – France, Netherlands and Germany – all achieved a sale premium to valuation.

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While last year has gone down in the annals of commercial property history as the year which saw the first ever globally synchronized downturn, for most markets this year has been when the industry has picked up the pieces.

In a wide-ranging discussion ahead of the two-day IPD / IPF Property Investment Conference, group managing director Laurent Ternisien discusses IPD’s priorities, strategic acquisitions and his hopes for this year’s annual event.

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More than £900m worth of UK commercial property annual rents are provided by tenants with a covenant risk classified as high or maximum, according to analysis by IPD Rental Information Service (IRIS). 

Based on figures to the end of the third quarter, 9.6% of commercial properties within IPD’s Quarterly Databank are considered maximum risk, while a further 5.5% is categorised as a high risk. Together these tenancies account for £934m, or 15.2%, of the Databank’s entire £6.1bn annual rental income as at the end of September.

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Capital flows into UK pooled property funds were the highest over the third quarter since Q2 2007, according to IPD's Property Fund Vision (PFV), with net new investment at £215m compared to a net outflow of £20m in the previous quarter.

PFV monitors 74 UK unlisted pooled funds, equally split between balanced and specialist funds, in total holding properties worth £32.4bn. This capital influx was wholly attributable to PFV’s seven Authorised Property Unit Trust (APUT) constituents. These funds together attracted £345m of net new investment, compared with a £10m net outflow the previous quarter. By contrast, the remaining 67 unlisted pooled funds within the PFV redeemed £130m to investors. 

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US real estate investors are expected to come back to their domestic market with capital to invest in the New Year focusing on core, super prime assets, according to IPD’s North America managing director, Simon Fairchild.

In a client presentation on Monday morning in London, Fairchild said US fund managers feel prime asset values are starting to bottom with “some equity capital to invest likely to return early next year”.

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IPD Blog: IPD/IPF Property Investment Conference 2009